Pengaruh Harga BBM terhadap Harga Saham [The Effect of Fuel Prices on Share Prices]

Abstract

An article by Adler Haymans Manurung, an expert in finance and capital markets, in the investment consultation column of the Sunday edition of the daily Kompas, published a few days after the Joko Widodo government raised the price of subsidised fuel (BBM) in November 2014. The author sets out three possible analyses of the relationship between the fuel price increase and share prices: a negative relationship through inflation, falling demand, and shrinking corporate profits; no effect at all, with an estimated maximum share price fluctuation of around 1.5 percent and the IHSG (Jakarta Composite Index) moving sideways within a range of 20 points up or down; and a positive relationship because the issue of the increase had already been priced in and policy certainty became a positive sentiment for investors optimistic about the new government. He advises investors to form their own views, not merely follow foreign transactions, and to hold to their confidence in Indonesia's economic growth.